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February 06, 2004
Explanation
About the "Convention Sweepstakes" thing I update on the left side of the page.
I started keeping track (back in December) of polling data for all the states that are holding primaries and caucuses this year. I set up a spreadsheet that had the states, the days that their primaries or caucuses were held, and the number of delegates to be awarded at the conclusion of each contest.
Once states held their election, I manually entered the number of delegates each candidate was awarded. I predict the delegate counts each candidate will get from future states based on their standings in the polls. Further, future states' results are discounted based on how long it is until their primary.
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Missouri and all the other states who have already voted are weighted 100%. Super Tuesday states like California are currently discounted to 60%. If you're familiar with the stock market and how future earnings are discounted because they haven't happened yet, then this will kind of make sense to you. Analysis in the next (previous) post.
Posted by Chris at February 6, 2004 12:26 PM
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