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February 06, 2004
Analysis
I started the Convention Sweepstakes thing back in December. I had moved into the anti-Dean camp and was disturbed by the media frenzy that was annointing Dean the inevitable frontrunner, the same thing that's happening to Kerry now.
In December, I put all the primaries into a spreadsheet and plugged in as much state-by-state polling data as I could locate. What it showed was that Dean was the frontrunner but only had enough poll support (at the time) to garner about 10% of the delegates if a "national primary" were held. Undecided back then was a massive 66%, which meant that even a candidate like Kerry (who scored a measly 4%) could take the nomination if he could start getting momentum and converting those undecideds.
The highest Dean ever got in my calculation was 16%. When you factored out undecideds the highest he ever climbed was 34% -- the day before Iowa. Now Kerry's adjusted number is 45%. Which is a way of guessing that if a national primary were held today with the remaining four candidates their delegate totals would be about 45% for Kerry, 20% Dean/Edwards and 15% for Clark.
So what's that mean? Well, for starters it means that the field has to further winnow down for Kerry or anyone else to win outright. If I were a Kerry supporter, I'd be most optimistic. He should rack up some wins in delegate rich territory this weekend. It doesn't necessarily put him that much closer to the nomination, but it makes it that much harder for his opponents to catch up.
If I were a Dean supporter, I would not be enthusiastic. His 14 showing breaks down thus: 10% actual delegates in the bag, 90% future polling projection. He has no room for error. As he's basically conceded every primary but 1 this month, he'll go into Super Tuesday with less than 10% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. He'd need to win something like 75% of the delegates that day to stop the momentum that either Kerry, Edwards or Clark will have and I just don't think that's likely.
Edwards can hold out some hope. Even if Kerry goes into the Tennessee and Virginia primaries with big victories this weekend, he'll still only have about 20% of the delegates needed to be nominated. If Edwards wins there, he would play a big catch up game. Kerry would still have more delegates, but if Edwards goes into Wisconsin and Super Tuesday with momentum it won't matter.
Then there's Clark. I don't think Clark can win. He was the perfect anti-Dean (in fact, my graphs chart amazing correlation between the two candidates) but since Dean is a goner Clark's raison d'etre no longer really exists. The one thing Clark is doing is robbing Edwards of the chance to make this a two man race with Kerry - a scenario that most likely would greatly benefit Edwards. Clark skipped Iowa and South Carolina and beat Edwards in New Hampshire and Oklahoma by about 2,000 votes total. Edwards has suffered from extreme bad luck. The fact that he came out of nowhere and outpolled Kerry in Oklahoma and nearly beat Clark should have been the story, but the media just isn't sophisticated enough to explain why Clark's victory is actually a great disapointment.
Virginia and Tennessee will vote and the outcome will probably be very similar to Oklahoma with Clark, Edwards and Kerry splitting the vote. If Edwards comes out on top, he may be able to convert that into momentum to really challenge Kerry. But he hasn't gotten a break like that yet. Stay tuned.
Posted by Chris at February 6, 2004 12:56 PM
Comments
Raison d'etre?? LMFAO Tell me you don't actually use that expression in everyday life.
My advice would be to write as you speak... but if that IS how you speak, you're a nerd.
Posted by: aimhq at February 7, 2004 01:02 AM
I don't think I've ever said it out loud more than once or twice. But it's the perfect term to describe the Clark candidacy when you look back at the (incorrect) perceptions about the Democratic field.
Posted by: Chris at February 7, 2004 01:58 AM
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