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January 28, 2004

Why the South Matters

	This is "Red" Georgia's Congressional delegation. As you can see, a red state like ours is pretty blue when you break it down. When you move down to state Senate, it gets bluer, state House, bluer still. When you factor in sherrifs and county commissioners, there is very little red in sight at all. Georgia voters have been splitting their tickets for over 40 years. There are a number of straight D voters and probably more straight R's. But there are a number of dormant Democrats who vote Republican on the federal level and sometimes drift over and give Democrats a look on the state level.
	A 2004 general election strategy by the Democrats which writes off the South could potentially turn Georgia's Congressional delegation into this at the left. If you don't live in Georgia you might be thinking 'big deal', who cares if Georgia loses a Democratic Congressman who isn't a liberal anyway? To that I say how's Dean or Kerry going to get his agenda through a Congress that would be not only more Republican but since the major gains would be coming from the South, more hostile to his agenda?
	Now, this is potentially what Georgia's Congressional delegation would look like with a strong Southern campaign at the top of the ticket. Old line Democrats who have drifted over to the Republican party will vote D all the way down the ticket if they start voting that way at the top. It's something to take into consideration, and I suspect many Southern voters are taking it into consideration, even if they aren't thinking on such a sophisticated level.

So what's it all mean? I'm not sure. Of course, a Democratic candidate can and likely would win the Presidency without needing the South. There's been plenty of literature pointing to the midwest/rust belt as the real battleground for the election, and I for one would love to see Ohio back in the Democratic column. The battle for Congress though will take place disporportionately in the South and if you're going to be making your mind up along electability or strategy considerations this is something to weigh heavily.

Posted by Chris at January 28, 2004 04:21 PM

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