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January 26, 2004
Final 1/26 ARG Daily Estimate
These are the last ARG New Hampshire estimates. In about 2 hours, New Hampshire starts voting.
| Final Projection | ARG Daily Poll Estimates | |||||||||||||||
| on 1/26 | on 1/25 | on 1/24 | on 1/23 | 1/26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | |
| 32 | 37 | 43 | 46 | Kerry | 32 | 34 | 42 | 39 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| 30 | 26 | 22 | 14 | Dean | 28 | 25 | 20 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 19 | 20 | 20 | 23 | Edwards | 15 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | Clark | 12 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | Lieberman | 7 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Other | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 20 | ||||
Analysis: I think today's daily poll showed Kerry's lead shrinking. Looks like ARG was pushing a lot of undecideds all along and tracked a huge amount of fair-weather Deaniacs fleeing to Kerry and now back to Dean. I think Lieberman will do slightly better than ARG does on their 'Best Guess' page, I think Clark will do slightly worse, and I think Kerry might lose some undecideds to Edwards. Let the games begin.
Extra: Here's the file. Check out the numbers for yourself, check out the graphs that shows the daily polling results, and be sure to check out the chart that shows who gained and who lost each day. It's pretty easy to see the Clark -> Edwards trend and also the Dean -> Kerry -> Dean trend.
Posted by Chris at January 26, 2004 10:08 PM
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