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January 25, 2004
Crack for the Weak?
Welcome from Wyeth Wire.
Philip at Poly Sigh has this warning:
Mickey Kaus is touting blogger Chrisishardcore's estimates of the one day ARG tracking poll results. As I mentioned in an earlier post, these one day numbers are meaningless. Furthermore, Chrisishardcore's estimates don't match up with what ARG is reporting. According to ARG "Howard Dean is up 10 percentage points from his low on January 22, but he still trails John Kerry by 17 percentage points in the latest daily numbers. But Chrisishardcore estimates that on 1/24, ARG had Kerry with 42 and Dean with 20, a 22 point difference, not 17. Furthermore, Chrisishardcore estimates that on 1/22, Dean had 15 percent, so if his support increased 10 points, he'd have to be at 25, not 20. Finally, Chrisishardcore has Dean's lowest day as 1/23 when he was at 13 percent, not 1/22.So to my warning about relying on one day tracking poll results, add a caveat about never ever relying on estimates of one day tracking poll results. If, as some said, the Zogby polls before the Iowa caucuses were "crack for the weak", then these estimates are "crank for wimps."
All I can really say is: welcome home wimps. ARG's numbers are ultimately probably going to be wrong, so are Zogby's and so are everyone's. With two days left until the primary these 3 day tracking polls won't be able to accurately show late surges -- and that's what I'm trying to do.
My numbers may not exactly equal ARG's. So what? My data showed a huge Kerry surge the day after Iowa - at the time ARG said he had a 5 point lead. But now their data show a comfortable double digit lead, neither of us were probably exactly right - but my 9 point lead that day is much closer to the CW now than ARG's 5 point-teaser.
My data has been showing a Clark slide, Edwards rise, comfortable Kerry and a Dean who, like in Iowa, has his Dean base but not much else. I suspect that ARG is pushing independents because their undecided number is down to 3. Compare that to Zogby who's got an undecided of 13! On the one hand, pushing independents may color your poll because they are notoriously fickle. On the other hand, New Hampshire votes in two days -- they've got to make up their minds sometime!
P.S.: These numbers are free! I personally guarantee no buyer's remorse. Zogby can't say the same to the media organizations this year or in '02 when he flubbed a number of races.
Posted by Chris at January 25, 2004 03:23 PM
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