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January 24, 2004
1/24 ARG Daily
Here are the new numbers for 1/24. I have also updated my projection, based on these numbers, for the final numbers:
| Final Projection | ||||||||||||
| on 1/24 | on 1/23 | 1/24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | |
| 43 | 46 | Kerry | 42 | 39 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| 22 | 14 | Dean | 20 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 20 | 23 | Edwards | 17 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | Clark | 14 | 16 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 20 |
| 4 | 6 | Lieberman | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Other | 3 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 20 | ||
Analysis: Dean has stopped bleeding support to Kerry. His post-scream "rebound" may be good enough to get him second place, but under no scenario I can imagine will he win. Dean seems to be getting his supporters back from undecided. He's holding close to his post-Iowa numbers (when he landed in second place) but doesn't seem to have convinced any undecideds since then to move back to him.
Today's data seems to have a larger percentage of independents than yesterday or the day before -- that may explain Dean's poor performance from yesterday and his rebound today. Democrats seem to motivated more by an 'Anybody But Bush' drive that has deemed Dean unelectable. Dean's support from his political newcomers probably shows up better when self-declared Democrats make up a smaller portion of the sample size.
However, Edwards and Kerry have also drawn many undecided votes. It seems to me that over the past week Kerry got an overwhelming majority of Dean deserters (who probably once supported Kerry) while Kerry and Edwards split the undecideds.
Edwards seems to get the majority of Clark supporters who are probably motivated in part by a desire to see another Bill Clinton/Southerner head the ticket. Kerry seems to get Clark supporters who were impressed by his military credentials. It seems like slightly more are gravitating to Edwards though, as his rise in the polls corresponds pretty evenly with Clark's fall.
Posted by Chris at January 24, 2004 11:03 PM
Comments
What do you make of the fact that ARG said that Dean is "up 10 points from his low on the 22nd" in the daily numbers?
Posted by: Hmmm at January 24, 2004 11:59 PM
They are either weighing their sample slightly different or they are talking about positive/negatives that don't show up in the actual ballot preference.
Of course it's always possible that my numbers could be off by 1 or 2 each day as long as it all evens up in the end.
They also said, the day after Iowa, that Kerry had opened up a "5 point lead" on Dean. But that's OBVIOUSLY not true. Those numbers moved way too fast for it to have only been 5 points at the time.
Posted by: Chris at January 25, 2004 02:14 AM
Well, I'm a Dean supporter, and I think Howard is going to either beat John Kerry on Tuesday or come in second within 8 percentage points. Edwards will get 3rd, Clark 4th, and Lieberman 5th. Could you please explain the discrepancy between your day-to-day result estimates and momentum estimates and the MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby Poll results which are reporting official day-to-day results showing Dean with huge momentum from Friday and Saturday and closing in on Kerry while Clark bottoms out?
Posted by: Mark Spreitzer at January 25, 2004 11:58 AM
If your projections hold, it would seem Dean is in big trouble, even if he noses out Edwards, with next stop being South Carolina. Great site, btw
Posted by: Simon Says at January 25, 2004 01:42 PM
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