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January 12, 2004
A Week Before Iowa
As I'm getting more data, all the candidates (except for Lieberman and Kerry) have been rising in my nominee sweepstakes on the left. Gep overtook Joe for 3rd place, as Lieberman's numbers have leveled off from his early name ID advantage in a number of early primary states and because the proximity of the Iowa caucuses, where Gep is expected to get 2nd at worst and come away with a significant number of delegates (Lieberman will get 0) is weighted higher than any state where Lieberman holds any advantage.
I think Clark looks set to take off. If Edwards somehow makes a very strong finish in Iowa he may be able to slow the Clark train, but it's left the station. Should be an exciting week. I predict that Dean will see a non-trivial change in support in Iowa as the caucuses approach, whether it will be people having second thoughts or giving him a second look, we'll see. Also, look for Clark supporters to wage a strong battle in the state. They probably won't qualify for delegates, but their support could be crucial in picking Iowa's anti-Dean.
Posted by Chris at January 12, 2004 08:05 PM
Comments
I would be interested to see if this new story about Dean will stick. I somehow doubt it, but I'm still intrigued.
As far as the whole Clark thing... In some of the states where Dean had a double digit lead over the other candidates he's now only 1 to 2 points ahead of Clark. I look for Clark not only to get the nomination but to most likely choose John Edwards as a running mate.
Posted by: sara at January 14, 2004 11:04 PM
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