chrisishardcore.com

All Confederate Flag, All The Time

Wonder why no one has pointed out that the judge who handed down the ruling that upheld a company's right to fire an employee for displaying the confederate flag is Roger Gregory, the judge Clinton appointed during a Congressional recess because Jesse Helms kept blocking his African American appointees from North Carolina (also in the 4th circuit).

Also wonder why the SCLM never brings up Helms 6 year racist block on all of Clinton's nominees from North Carolina whenever Republicans start bitching about the Democrats' judicial filibusters, but love to point out that Democrats are blocking a <gasp> Hispanic nominee!

The Dreaded Flag Debate

When you spend your time arguing about politics, and more specifically Georgia politics, you can't escape from the shadow that this flag casts over our great state.

I find that there are roughly four camps that people fall into.

1. Democrats positively convinced the flag cost Barnes the election.
2. Democrats convinced the flag played a role along with other issues.
3. Republicans who prefer to highlight those other issues (teachers, Northern ARC) while grudgingly admitting the flag might have played a role.
4. Republicans aware of rural Georgia politics who completely disavow the role of the flag or Republicans unaware of rural Georgia election dynamics who had no idea (pre-Nov 5th) that the flag was an issue.

I waffle between 1 and 2. The day after the election I was sqaurely in the camp of 1, probably due to a little shock. Now I agree that the loss of support from teachers hurt Barnes re-election prospects. However, when you examine the numbers that I've compiled, you'll see how Democrats on the state legislative level, who generally supported Barnes agenda wholesale, fared compared to Barnes based on one vote: their support for the 1956 flag or the Barnes flag.

Some background: My data includes 86 rural counties. About 50 of these counties had competitive state representative races, and about 50 had competitive state senate races. Some had both. The total vote in these counties makes up about 17.5% of the statewide vote, and is pretty representative of the "rural" Georgia vote as a whole. Keep in mind, Barnes won in the cities and suburbs, so if he had come close or even won in these counties, and other counties like them, he would be serving his second term.

Now for the data:
[What type candidate is being analysed] Vote% Barnes vote in same counties
Average vote for Democraticic state legislator: 55% 42%

Average vote for Democratic state representative candidate in "open" seats: 46% 39%
Average vote for Democratic state senator candidate in "open" seats: 42% 37%

Average vote for "Turncoat"* Dem. state representative: 55% 45%
Average vote for "Turncoat"* Dem. state senator: 55% 45%

Average vote for Dem. state representative who voted against the Barnes flag and for the 1956 flag: 61% 39%
Average vote for Dem. state senator who voted against the Barnes flag and for the 1956 flag: 64% 37%

* Turncoat = Candidate who voted for Barnes flag.

My conclusion: I believe that the flag vote played, at minimum, a 6% role in the governor's race. I draw this conclusion from two numbers.

One is the difference between the vote for "open seat" Democrats and Governor Barnes. In an open seat, the party performance should be pretty well reflected in the number of votes each candidate received. In these instances, the unknown Democratic candidate received about 6% more votes than Gov. Barnes. It is likely that these local candidates for legislative races pretty much adopted the Democratic platform for 2002, without being tainted by the flag controversy.

The other set of data I use to draw my 6% conclusion is the difference in vote between Democratic state reps who voted for the '56 flag (63% average) and those Democrats who supported the Barnes flag (55% average).

When you consider that Barnes lost to Perdue 46%-52% statewide, you can see how a relatively small swing in half the state could have changed the outcome. In fact, in just these 86 counties, if Barnes had run even with the Democrats running for state legislator (historically the Democratic governor runs about even with the local Democrat running for state legislator), he would have taken 51,000+ votes away from Perdue, leaving him only 1,000 votes short statewide. Considering that there are many other rural counties that were not included in my study, if it hadn't been for the flag, he probably could have more than made up these 1,000 votes. In fact, he probably would have polled somewhere in-between the other Democratic statewide incumbents, like Lt. Gov Mark Taylor (52%), Attorney General Thurbert Baker (55%) and Secretary of State Cathy Cox (60%).

My data conclude that the confederate flag cost Roy Barnes the governorship.

I hope this has helped shine a light on whether the flag played an issue. We can throw rhetorical flames at each other all day long, especially in the comments over at the Political State Report, but eventually, it's in the interest of operatives on both sides to get some conclusive answers.

Please see the extended entry for info on where to download the excel files to verify my work, or draw your own conclusions. Also, please feel free to leave me a comment in lieu of email, as I've just installed the Earthlink Beta Spamblocker, and none of it will get through!

The excel files can be found here:

Get your excel files here!

Who's that?

For the third time in a few weeks, I've read a great opinion piece in the Washington Post, gotten to the bottom and been surprised to find out that it's written by Prospect editor-at-large Harold Meyerson. Here's this week's column which talks about the very early stages of the Democratic GOTV efforts for 2004.

Care Bears and Ninja Turtles

This humorous NYT Magazine article about the Hipublicans raises a few questions. Do even those in favor of more gun ownership want guns viewed as toys in their mickey mouse, care bears, and TMNT holsters? Probably not.

On a less serious note, it's nice to hear a young hipublican girl say she doesn't want to have kids, since I don't want her to be a mother. Seriously though, does the NYT Magazine seriously believe that conservatives of this type are really springing up on campus? These kids are the crazy fanatical shouting on rooftop types, not much different (barring ideology) than the lefties lampooned in PCU.

If other loonies want to join the fun, go ahead. As for the girl who says there are plenty of pro-life Republicans, maybe in Colorado but not in Georgia. Most college kids I meet are pretty fiscally conservative and socially liberal. I can see how some of them are drifting to the Republicans and most are staying apolitical, since the Democratic party doesn't really know what it stands for right now, but as soon as the Democrats get a charismatic candidate offering a realistic change to the status quo, that's where the big momentum will be.

All in all, what's so impressive about a bunch of rightwing goons who publish money losing papers that faraway wealthy donors support. Sounds more like the Nation than the Wall Street Journal to me.

Numbers, numbers, numbers

I've spent a while compiling statewide election data (by county) for pretty much every substantial race since the 1988 Presidential election race.

Here is my early (unscientific) conclusion:

In 1992, Perot picked up about 25% of his vote from statewide voters who normally voted Libertarian. Another quarter or so probably wouldn't have voted if it weren't for Perot (these voters skipped the US Senate race between Coverdale and Fowler altogether). The remaining half of Perot's voters are basically a toss up between Clinton and Bush, so it's unlikely, based on just Georgia, that Perot cost Bush the election. I'm not sure if this is still the conventional wisdom or not, but Democrats hoping for a 3rd party challenge to Bush from the right shouldn't look to Perot as the model, but to Nader. And I can't see any rightwing group (besides the libertarians) getting so upset with the Republicans as to mount a significant challenge.

So, where does this leave us? How do you explain the surge of new Clinton voters in 1992? I'd have to say it's the mixture of a killer issue that normally non-voters thought Clinton was going to make radical progress on and Clinton's image as the candidate of those opposed to the status quo.

On the latter, the Democratic nominee won't have to worry -- for better or worse Bush sets the agenda, he is the status quo. On the former, will it be healthcare again? I can't say, but I know that it's the only issue right now where the "Democratic Nominee" beats Bush among registered voters. Imagine how the "Democratic Nominee" fairs among non-voters in this categoree. I'd guess pretty well.

What can you do about it? I'm not sure. If the Democrats can mobilize early, they could bring a groundswell of new voters to the polls and recruit some innovative candidates for lower offices. The important lesson that I think a lot of people are learning is that it's not Get Out the Vote, per se, but Get New Voters Registered. We'll see how it turns out. You can see me at the next Dean Meetup in Atlanta. That campaign's internet outreach has really intrigued me. It has the real potential to reverse the electronic divide between the parties, and I'll be interested to see what other Deanophiles are thinking.

I Love the 80's!

I caught VH-1's "I Love the 80's" for the first time yesterday and immediately TiVo'd myself a season pass. What a well done show. The episode I saw was 1989, and featured just the right mix of commentary from people who participated in the events of that year and those who just experienced it like everyone else. Now if only I could see "It's Garry Shandling's Show" on cable I'd be set.

Roadmap to Peace?

Occasionally I wear an Israeli pin on my lapel. No cause has been more undeservingly glorified in recent times than that of the Palestinian suicide bomber. However, the Bush/Sharon "roadmap to peace" seems to lead only to further violence on both sides. Sharon doesn't seem to be interested in halting new settlements, much less dismantling existing ones. And Bush seems more interested in toothless acts of good faith that sound great in campaign speeches but produced disasterous results on the ground, whether in Israel, Iraq or Afghanistan. The real losers seem to be the Palestinians, who for the first time in memory have made (small) steps in the right direction by beginning to reform their parliament. Who thinks they'll be willing to make any progress in the future if all they get in return is a Sharon who refuses to yield any concessions?

Taxes...snore!

Virginia Postrel can't decide whether or not the Senate version of 'dividend tax relief' is the dumbest tax "reform" ever.

With the states in $50 billion of deficit this year, I don't think any tax cut is a good idea right now. However, the House version remedied a bias in the tax code. Taxing dividends at a maximum rate of 40% and capital gains at 20% (or less) gave undue favor to growing companies that retain their earnings instead of sharing them with their shareholders. Sounded like a great idea in 1999, but I bet a lot of tech stockholders wished they had gotten a piece of the earnings pie back then (if it existed) instead of nothing now.

The House version of the tax cut simply decided to tax dividends and capital gains at the same maximum rate: 15%. This basically means take your pick, Cisco (which pays no dividend and retains its earnings) or Southern Company (which retains little of its earnings, paying most out in dividends) or the myriad number of companies that fall somewhere in-between. The Senate version (temporarily) eliminates the tax on dividends, therefor reversing the previous bias that existed in the tax code instead of eliminating it all together.

A principled executive branch should recognize a better idea (the House version) and run with it. But Bush insists on getting the closest thing to his version of legislation passed in this instance. What's the point? Unless this is all part of some greater scheme to foister even more contempt for a tax code that is becomingly increasingly political, why not run throw some meat to the few people in the House with a brain who came up with a tax cut/reform that actually makes some sense.

I guess it's just another example of how anyone with a brain in the White House inevitably trades it in for a massive ego instead.

UPDATE:

Bruce Bartlett writing in National Review has a good column on the White House's misguided economic team, though he doesn't really go into the specifics of why the House tax plan is preferable until the last paragraph.

UPDATE REDUX:
Warren Buffet makes a similar point in the Washington Post. Under the new dividend tax cut, his average tax rate could drop to 3%! And, he points out, he probably won't be creating any new jobs. Oppose a tax cut? Class warfare. Enact a tax cut? Class welfare (for the rich!).

Zaireeka!

I know I'm about 6 years late, but I must say Zaireeka is quite awesome. Now if only I could find more people with cd players and nothing to do on Saturday night, we could have a good old fashioned Lips party!

Thurbert Baker at Breakfast

Had a chance to hear Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker give remarks and field a few questions from the assembled DeKalb Democratic Party's Breakfast Club. All I can say is, wow! Baker has quite a crowd persona, and was equally impressive one on one, though I didn't have as much time as I would have liked to chat him up.

The CW is that a black candidate can't win a top of the ticket statewide race in practically any state, but especially in the South. Baker has already won two down ticket statewide races (one in a good year, and one in a bad election year). If he decides to run for the Senate and gets around the state giving the same performance he did today, I give him equal odds against Rep. Johnny Isaakson (R), and better than equal odds against a rural pro-lifer like Rep. Mac Collins (R).

I told him it would be great to have a Senator from Georgia that votes like a Democrat, and he flashed me a coy smile.

Enter Mac Collins

The Georgia Senate race is heating up with Mac Collins expected to enter sometime next week. In about 5 hours, I get to go see AG Thurbert Baker speak. Baker has been rumored to be a potential candidate on the Democratic side. Who else might jump in? It's hard to say, but after Perdue snubbed former Lt. Governor Pierre Howard by not reappointing him to the natural resources board, it seems like a perfect time for him to re-emerge. Who knows?

Goings on at the FCC

Senators introduced a bill to thwart the FCC's rewriting of media ownership rules. Potentially good populist stuff here for a "NASCAR Democrat" to exploit -- big business running roughshod over the sensibilities of small town America. It's funny how many people buy into the family value/small town conservatism con that is Fox News while completely overlooking the fact that it's the same network which produces such value-affirming programming as Joe Millionaire and Mr. Personality, which as an aside, would have been much better if viewers didn't know what the masked men looked like either.

Catching up with the King

"It was wrong to rebel against the United States. It was wrong to defend the horrible institution of slavery," Barnes said. "I believe we have a right, and even a duty to honor our ancestors who made the ultimate sacrifice. But we don't really honor them by flaunting a symbol that inflames and injures. That doesn't honor their valor. It perputuates their tragic mistake. (link)

Wonder when our current governor will say something 1/10th as elegant? Here are the remarks by former state Rep. Dan Ponder. If you've never read them before then go have a look.

Barnes discussion of subtle racial appeals was much more open in Boston than it was during the first flag change or the campaign. Sure, some Democrats in the old South still play by these rules. But if Republicans can (unfairly) brand Democrats in the South as nothing more than "Northern liberals," then I don't see why Democrats shouldn't point out that many Republicans in the South vehemently disagree with Barnes statement above. How can anyone disagree with that?

The rarest soul label

Interesting WaPo article about Shrine, D.C.'s own Motown. If you're interested in starting your very own Shrine collection, there is an auction on eBay right now.

If you collect state quarters, all you have to do is hang around until 2008 or so to get every one. But even if you're willing to spend thousands of dollars, you'll probably never get a copy of the Cavaliers' "Do What I Want."

Running up that hill

Gephardt is my new favorite candidate, if for no other reason than he already has a Big Idea (c). Wondering "Where's the Beef?". Check this MaxSpeak post to learn more.

As far as I can tell, Gephardt's plan does two significant things: First and foremost, it covers the majority of Americans who are currently uninsured. Second, and importantly, it gives those who already have insurance a reason to care about the uninsured at the ballot box because it lowers their healthcare costs about 39%.

That's what makes Edwards's attack on Gephardt so unfortunate. The "average" family of 4 that makes $40,000 a year might not see $800 of tax cut savings (if Bush's tax cuts are cancelled), but if they spend $2,000 a year or more on healthcare, they'll make it up there. Of course, that assumes they're already covered at work as it is. If not, their healthcare savings should be much more than $800.

I know my calculus

From the Post, have you met your Match, or do you not have the Nerve to seek out love online? Maybe you'll just hook up with a friend of a friend?

Newer more sophisticated matchmakers say just take a test and leave the rest to us. Can it be that simple?

Paging Lord Pegasus!

If you want to make your apartment/condo look nice, and that is you pictured at the right, I suggest you either pick up your pictures or arrange for delivery sometime this week.

Movable Type

Movable Type is up and running...and it only took me about 4 hours. Still, rather spend four hours once then spend 15 minutes every time I want to do an entry, which, when it takes 15 minutes an entry, is never.