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May 25, 2003
Numbers, numbers, numbers
I've spent a while compiling statewide election data (by county) for pretty much every substantial race since the 1988 Presidential election race.
Here is my early (unscientific) conclusion:
In 1992, Perot picked up about 25% of his vote from statewide voters who normally voted Libertarian. Another quarter or so probably wouldn't have voted if it weren't for Perot (these voters skipped the US Senate race between Coverdale and Fowler altogether). The remaining half of Perot's voters are basically a toss up between Clinton and Bush, so it's unlikely, based on just Georgia, that Perot cost Bush the election. I'm not sure if this is still the conventional wisdom or not, but Democrats hoping for a 3rd party challenge to Bush from the right shouldn't look to Perot as the model, but to Nader. And I can't see any rightwing group (besides the libertarians) getting so upset with the Republicans as to mount a significant challenge.
So, where does this leave us? How do you explain the surge of new Clinton voters in 1992? I'd have to say it's the mixture of a killer issue that normally non-voters thought Clinton was going to make radical progress on and Clinton's image as the candidate of those opposed to the status quo.
On the latter, the Democratic nominee won't have to worry -- for better or worse Bush sets the agenda, he is the status quo. On the former, will it be healthcare again? I can't say, but I know that it's the only issue right now where the "Democratic Nominee" beats Bush among registered voters. Imagine how the "Democratic Nominee" fairs among non-voters in this categoree. I'd guess pretty well.
What can you do about it? I'm not sure. If the Democrats can mobilize early, they could bring a groundswell of new voters to the polls and recruit some innovative candidates for lower offices. The important lesson that I think a lot of people are learning is that it's not Get Out the Vote, per se, but Get New Voters Registered. We'll see how it turns out. You can see me at the next Dean Meetup in Atlanta. That campaign's internet outreach has really intrigued me. It has the real potential to reverse the electronic divide between the parties, and I'll be interested to see what other Deanophiles are thinking.
Posted by Chris at May 25, 2003 02:56 AM
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