« Crack for the Weak? | Main | The BBC »
April 09, 2004
Dead Heat
They laughed when my numbers showed Bush and Kerry at a break even yesterday. Today Rasmussen reports that yesterday was Bush's best day in a week. Chrisishardcore prediction: whoever has a better day in the polls today pulls ahead in tomorrow's tracking poll. Kerry has totally blown what was a 7 or 8 point lead in the span of two days. Time for John Edwards to be dispatched as VP?
Posted by Chris at April 9, 2004 11:54 AM
Comments
Not a tie last night from what Rasmussen is implying. I really appreciate your work, but, unfortunately, Rasmussen appears to apply a coefficient to the entire three day sample--hard for you to isolate each day without knowing it.
Here's a Freeper post about their effort to do the same thing back in 2000:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1113731/posts?page=24#24
Posted by: anonymous at April 9, 2004 01:39 PM
After reading that Freeper thread more closely, I realize that my description of the difficulty is erroenous. However, it is still difficult to accurately isolate each day.
Posted by: anonymous at April 9, 2004 01:42 PM
I have found an intersting pattern in your numbers, which I have written about at Unconventional Wisdom, http://unconventionalwisdom.typepad.com/unconventional_wisdom/2004/04/king_friday.html
Apologies for the shameless self-promotion.
Posted by: Mike at April 9, 2004 02:05 PM
Thanks for the #'s but lots of false assumptions in your writeup. 1) Don't focus on the margin of Kerry vs. Bush. Focus on the Bush numbers and the Kerry numbers. Kerry is polling in a relatively stable range, he is at 46 or 47 almost every day. Watch the Bush numbers, that's where the action is. If Bush goes to the low 40's, he's in trouble -- he'll get almost no undecideds. 2) Don't blame Kerry for "blowing" anything -- this is all about Bush and fluctuating perceptions of his performance, Kerry can do little to help, Bush has to hang himself on his own. 3) VP candidates have no impact and Edwards would be no exception. 4) Even if Kerry slips a few points one week, that shouldn't translate into urgency (e.g., "pick a VP now")... the election is in November, and these numbers will dance around lots between now and the fall.
Posted by: Peter Feld at April 9, 2004 04:59 PM
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)