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March 09, 2004
Redistricting primer
Excitement and nervousness about the next chapter of the redistricting saga got you biting your nails? Here are a few things to take under advisement:
- Barring some sort of GOP miracle, the state Senate map can't get any more Republican-friendly than "SENATE FAIR 8 AP." Check here to see what Eric Johnson and Bill Stephens's wet dream does to your area.
- The House map used in the '02 elections is the most Democratic friendly map we're likely to see. That said, the court could very well produce a House map that isn't unfavorable to Democrats as a whole.
- ...However, certain incumbent Democrats (and Republicans) are likely to be the biggest losers in the court drawn map. If the court dispenses with multi-member districts, as is likely, a number of incumbents will be thrown together in districts.
- Will the greater good prevail? Not likely! Actual members of the Democratic leadership, especially Coleman and Porter, aren't likely to see their districts redrawn in any way that would prevent their return to the General Assembly. There are certain to be some high ranking committee chairmen who will find themselves facing other Democrats in a primary or well-funded Republicans in the general.
- 90 votes. That's how many "no" votes we'll need to prevent the worst possible scenario -- a dirty deal between House Democrats and Senate Republicans whereby each accepts the other's map. Perdue, the Senate and House Republicans are on the record against multi-member districts, but how many will let such petty things as principles stand in the way of the Republican Senate plan, which guarantees Republican dominance of the Senate past 2010? I'm guessing 0.
- As an aside, the House Democratic map is not nearly as favorable to Democrats as the Senate map is to Republicans. Since the Republicans wouldn't need to spend any money to win the Senate all their resources would be directed at picking off vulnerable House Democrats.
Posted by Chris at March 9, 2004 03:57 PM
Comments
I'm very curious about the new maps coming out on Monday from the courts. Mainly b/c I think non-partisan-drawing is the way to go for everybody. It's time Democrats and Republicans both stopped "pimping" their own constituencies and actually campaigned for their votes.
Posted by: Tim Cairl at March 11, 2004 10:27 AM
I'm with you, partly. On the one hand I'd love to draw my own maps. But I wouldn't want the Republican version of me doing the same. I think there should be some partisan considerations taken, I just don't know where you draw that line, so to speak. It's a debate for another time.
Posted by: Chris at March 11, 2004 10:39 AM
It's high time the supreme court ended the gerrymandering system. As an independent who's lived all over the U.S. gerrymandering produces either hard left democrats or hard right republicans.
I've lived in both types of districts. Usually there is no competition at all and as a result the incumbent has no incentive to moderate their radical views.
so far I've had
hard left:
Chaka Fatah
Danny Davis
hard Right
Henry Hyde
Tom Delay
It'd be nice to have sombody between Che Guevra and Atila the Hun to vote for
Posted by: John B at March 18, 2004 11:57 PM
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