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February 03, 2004
Feb 3rd Predictions
Well, the big day is upon us. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Kerry will win 4 states tomorrow. I think the easiest thing to do is just pick how many primaries Kerry will win instead of who will win what state. Predict away in comments, if you so desire.
Posted by Chris at February 3, 2004 12:17 AM
Comments
Four sounds right. I think Kerry is overrepresented in the polls, as I would bet that he is thought of as enough of a sure thing that a lot of leaners would just stay home. Also, there is no good way of screening for likely voters in this sort of primary, and I would think that 'magazine cover voters' would be the most likely to think they would vote but not actually make it if traffic were bad.
This might just be wishful thinking from a AABIBTK guy though.
Posted by: Jon at February 3, 2004 01:45 AM
Sen. Kerry will pick up five, dropping SC to Sen. Edwards and Oklahoma to Gen. Clark. I feel confident saying the cw is right with five, but I have my hopes out for six or even the never in history accomplished sweep. I just want the Kerry-Edwards ticket final and raising cash.
Posted by: K. at February 3, 2004 02:31 AM
Kerry wins 5 today
Posted by: ed4kerry at February 3, 2004 10:07 AM
I have posted this week's primary prediction roundup.
Posted by: Dan Spencer at February 3, 2004 03:44 PM
An early exit poll by the National Review shows the following:
AZ Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13
MO Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10
SC Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10
OK Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28
DE Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11
I hope this is true because Edwards is the only candidate that can beat Bush, and this would effectively make it a Kerry-Edwards race. I predict that if Edwards can start getting some more mainstream national exposure (ie: Newsweek covers, Dateline bits, etc.) he'll have a real chance at unseating the seemingingly unbeatable Kerry.
I cannot imagine John Kerry ever beating George Bush. Even Al Gore would be a more exciting candidate.
Posted by: Brian Pfanschmidt at February 3, 2004 04:54 PM
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