chrisishardcore.com

Right on!

Has there been anything heard from the other LA -- Louisiana? John Breaux could make a fine VP candidate if electability is the issue. Don't know if he would do it.

I 100% agree, and am not going wobbly on Edwards, who I really want to pull out the nomination somehow.

That said, I finally 'got' what people are seeing in Kerry. Sure, if you strip away Nam he is an arrogant 'limosine moderate' who is out of touch with most of America, but Bush without 911 is worse. Without 911 Bush is a washed up frat boy who somehow got to be president and totally blew it. I would suspect thats even true in much of the South.

Kerry does not need to get people to vote for him because he IS a war hero. All he needs to do is show by contrast that Bush is NOT a war hero.

Dig?

Just saw that Noam Scheiber at the TNR has a more articulate version of what I was trying to say.

http://www.tnr.com/etc.mhtml

I agree! Look, I'll happily vote for Kerry over Bush. I just don't think ex-Democrats trending Republican that live in rural Georgia will. And I want those voters to be Democrats so we can control our state legislature again.

You don't think that 51% would, say, if Bushes 'steadfast moral clarity in the face of evil' image starts to look like a rented costume after eight months of defending his courage and military record?

I don't pretend to know the answer to that, but if its 'no' then Kerry has no chance anyway. Rural ex democrats in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Etc. all will probably answer that question the same way...

Anyway, I think you, I and Karl Rove all agree on who the strongest Dem is. I am just trying to make myself feel better about a likely outcome.

I hate to say I agree here, being a diehard Dean supporter, but in my opinion, this is the best analysis I've read anywhere.

I can't count the times in the past two weeks that I've read in the comments section of various political blogs the words:

"I'll vote for Kerry if he's nominated, but I'll be puking while I do it"

Dean supporters especially find Kerry repugnant, for a variety of reasons:

1. He's abandoned his own entire 2003 campaign and is now running almost entirely on Howard Deans planks while telling people Dean is an unelectable freak,no less ---

2. He has been entirely ineffective in Congress, check his legislative recored, 14 bills written, 6 out of 8 that became law are 'letter head' crap like "John Q Public Day" for someone in his state ----

3. He voted AGAINST Gulf War I, you know, the one where Saddam was lobbing missles into Israel and actually invaded another country - but FOR the IWR, then AGAINST the $87 Billion to supply our men and women in uniform what they need to fight with. This guy is running now as a Veteran but has, to put it politely, a less-than stellar record on military actions

4. People in 2000 who didn't like Al Gore claimed that he 'bored them to death', and it was one of the major factors that lost him the election (not to mention that Supreme Court vote). Kerry speaking make Gore look like Robin Williams on acid.

Will I be able to convert to a Edward supporter with some enthusiasm, if he wins the nomination? I believe that I could.

Do I think Dean is out of the running? Not by a long shot. This campaign, much to the DNC and DLC hopes otherwise, is not going to be over until past March 2nd at the very least, and has the distinct possiblity of becoming a full-fledged, down to the convention battle.

I'm ready for anything. Except a John Kerry vote.

Oh, and I almost forgot.

The least likeable thing about Kerry is his pandering non-sensical attempt to portray himself as some kind of latter day Kennedy by pushing himself as John F. Kerry - He's no JFK, and he should be ashamed of himself for trying to make voters think he is.

Not to be rude, but I think Chris was suggesting that Edwards ability to win back rural former democrats would be essential for 'down ticket' contests such as the Georgia state house. I was playing devils advocate by suggesting the Kerry's ability to pull the sock out of the front of W's flight suit might have a similar net effect.

Dean would have been toast with those voters had he not blazed out already.

What would be the equation if Edwards is the running mate, hypothetically, to a liberal nominee? Will he still get the Dems who voted for W ?

while i like to think "It's ok as long as Edwrads is on the ticket" I've heard it said that nobody votes for president based on the veep. This might be true. It seems to me that you can try to plug an issue type weakness, like Cheney made Bush seem more grownup or serious (of course Cheney picked himself which is maybe the most hilarious thing that's ever happened in politics). so i think it would help (Edwards running as Kerry's veep) in the South but I don't think Edwards has the kind of clout that it would convince many Bush voting Democrats. I still think edwards would be a good pick for Kerry because he does other things for him - youth and affability, and middle class roots - and helps him a little in the South.

Chris,

EXCELLENT post. I have been thinking this all along. Sure, Kerry is a "stronger" candidate than Edwards among Democrats. More experienced, steadier, more like the elder statesman that we want at a time like this. (And Dean is a real Democrat, even better.) But New York and Connecticut won't jump ship and go for Dubya just because the Dem nominee is a freshman from South Carolina. On the other hand, I really do doubt that Kerry could pull it out in the southern swing states. And I doubt that Edwards in the veep slot could pack nearly as much punch (although he's still the best pick.)

It's sad that the best course is letting Republicans decide our primary, but getting Dubya out of office is the first priority this year. And Democrats seem to be ignoring that.

Chris,

EXCELLENT post. I have been thinking this all along. Sure, Kerry is a "stronger" candidate than Edwards among Democrats. More experienced, steadier, more like the elder statesman that we want at a time like this. (And Dean is a real Democrat, even better.) But New York and Connecticut won't jump ship and go for Dubya just because the Dem nominee is a freshman from South Carolina. On the other hand, I really do doubt that Kerry could pull it out in the southern swing states. And I doubt that Edwards in the veep slot could pack nearly as much punch (although he's still the best pick.)

It's sad that the best course is letting Republicans decide our primary, but getting Dubya out of office is the first priority this year. And Democrats seem to be ignoring that.

I'll be staying home if any pro-war Dem gets the nomination. They shouldn't be rewarded for selling us out.

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