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February 29, 2004
Edwards v Kerry
ARG has released their new Georgia poll which shows a tighter race than Zogby. Not too much to say. I missed Edwards' rally today because I rode MARTA instead of driving and there was a 30 minute delay for a train. I heard from reliable sources who were there that it wasn't just the same old stump speech but a few new lines were peppered in and it was the best appearance they'd seen of him yet.
Will it matter? I'm not sure. ARG and Zogby both make it seem unlikely that Edwards will pull it out, but ARG and Zogby have been wrong. Specifically, ARG greatly underestimated the number of non-Democrats who would vote in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. Their poll, weighted 2-1 in favor of registered Democrats showed a tightening race in New Hampshire. What actually happened was that Democrats preferred Kerry over Dean by about 5 points while independents broke for Kerry by a much larger margin. On election day the ratio of Indys to Dems was about 1:1.
Another thing that happened in New Hampshire was that the registered Dems broke for Edwards over Clark by about 16-11 but Clark won the independent vote by similar margins. For some reason the media kept Dean alive (although Iowa and NH were perfect predictors for how well Dean would do down the road and the media KNEW it) and Clark's outsider appeal and 500 votes here (NH) and there (OK) kept him alive long enough to spoil Tennessee (Virginia isn't a real Southern primary state anymore) for Edwards. Mr. Edwards has just had back luck this primary season.
Anyway, my point is that independent voters in New Hampshire helped Kerry and Clark and were underrepresented in a lot of polls. In Georgia, the opposite will happen--they'll break for Edwards. If nothing else, I can't imagine that only 12% of the electorate on Tuesday will have an unfavorable view of Kerry, or that 24% of voters will still be undecided about Edwards. I expect this race to be a lot closer than the polls show. As always, remember, I've been wrong before.
Posted by Chris at February 29, 2004 04:00 AM
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