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February 26, 2004
Edwards in Georgia
Via Mickey I see my input is requested on the Georgia primary race. Edwards is definitely in play here. The Democratic Speaker of the House, Agricultural Commissioner and over 50 legislators endorsed him at an event at the state Capitol on Tuesday.
Ironically enough, a number of state House members from conservative districts who had already endorsed Bush at a fundraising event pre-Iowa came out and officially endorsed Edwards yesterday. It will be interesting to see what they do if Edwards wins the nomination.
One rural Georgia state senator who is a friend of mine (but not a Bush endorser) told me that Edwards is the first national Democrat she has endorsed in recent memory. She added, "I've been too embarrassed by the rest of them."
One thing that's not getting enough play in the press is Edwards' outspokeness on NAFTA. Clinton's enthusiastic support for free trade hurt him in the South as much as his personal issues and Edwards is the first prominent Democrat in a long time to come along and speak to these fears.
My personal feeling is that Kerry's advantage in "electability" is more fragile than ever. The latest big Fox poll showed that voters favor Republicans by a +23 margin on terrorism but only favor Democrats by a +11 margin on the economy. This split means that on election day the economy better out-prioritize national security by a margin of 2:1 or even Kerry, who is seeking a fight with Bush on national security grounds (and probably accounts for the narrowing from +34 to +23 in the poll) , will have a hard time winning.
Conversely, it seems like a no-brainer that Edwards will have a much easier time framing the debate around economic issues and that he could even possibly open up a lead on Bush regarding the economy to even out Bush's lead on terrorism.
Kerry gets a slight edge among elected officials from metro Atlanta. Edwards has racked up big margins from rural Democrats. It's sad to say but everyone's eyes are on the AJC to see who they endorse. Key newspaper endorsements in Wisconsin helped Edwards turn a 30 point gap into a strong second place showing. In Georgia he's already within striking distance and if things go his way I think he'll be able to win on Tuesday, possibly setting up a good showing for him in "Southern" Tuesday the next week.
Posted by Chris at February 26, 2004 12:56 AM
Comments
Chris,
Good post. NYT endorses Kerry, not like anybody expected a different outcome. Have you gone to see Edwards speak?
Ben
Posted by: Ben at February 26, 2004 02:13 AM
I saw Edwards speak while informally "tracking" an event of his in TN a couple of days before that primary.
Thoughts:
(1) the contents of the stump speech, which I'd never paid attention to in more than bits and bursts from C-Span, are as spectacular as reputed.
(2) he seemed incredibly bored by the speech, speaking unbelievably quickly -- message discipline for so long must rot at his soul, since he is SO effective extemporaneously, even if undereducated on so many issues. (see, e.g., recent LAT on Edwards and the WTO/export subsidies) He took no questions, but had an impressive to the media "shake every hand" approach.
(3) His smile looks better on TV, or at least when spontaneous; frighteningly wide and nongenuine seeming in person.
(4) his arms stretched out, thumbs up over shoulder level response to crowd applause struck me as weird -- but struck no one else there as weird.
(5) Unlike any Clark event I knew about (slight hyperbole)... this event in Jackson, TN was perfectly on time, which depressed the hell out of me.... :)
My overall thoughts are -- terrific Veep, but the media's infatuation is more based on extemporaneous stuff they have seen, and his wondeeful Communications team, than his stump speech, despite what you may have heard in comparisons to Clinton.
Posted by: Jeff at February 26, 2004 08:34 AM
It's funny you mention that...my state senator friend kept telling a reporter she was talking to on the phone that he was a "wonderful extemporaneous speaker."
This primary season has not been kind to Edwards, what with Dean sucking all the oxygen from Iowa->Wisconsin and "electability" voters in New Hampshire, Oklahoma and Tennessee picking Clark instead of Edwards.
Posted by: Chris at February 26, 2004 08:42 AM
Edwards burned through the speech double time at the GA capitol on tuesday. He started his event late and had to get to Houston, but I just wanted to say "cut stuff out", instead he just spoke really fast.
I like the stump a lot but i still think it's over rated as a speech, that is it's not pure guava. he had one a few months back that was much more hardcore and specific, all about economics. That speech was great. The current one has a few too many lines like "I say NO to children going to bed hungry".
The NYT endorsement of Kerry was so half assed. They could have kept that.
Posted by: stress at February 26, 2004 03:27 PM
Jeff --
Good commentary. When he was here in L.A. I noticed that he DOES look much more personable on TV than in person, and I think part of that is that he has learned to work the camera like he would a juror. When you're watching him on TV, you're an especially privileged audience member that he is wooing extensively, whereas in person you're just a face in the crowd.
Perhaps in California he had more time, but it didn't seem like he was bored. He spoke slowly and cut some stuff out, but it seemed like he was really into his little jokes, etc. Maybe because the crowd was so responsive. But I guess it's just like any job: good days and bad.
Regarding the weird thumbs-up-over-the-shoulder thing, yeah, I'd noticed that multiple times. It seems a bit silly but the crowds seem to like it and it's an interesting little quirk.
And the extemporaneous thing -- I watched his interview with the Times editors, and he didn't seem to charm THEM as much as Kerry did. My personal perception is that Kerry is very good with people in positions of power -- he feels comfortable being intellectual with them. Edwards, on the other hand, views people as more or less the same -- I don't think that "mill town" stuff is all bullshit -- and hence did not pander as effectively to the NYT.
Anyway, Georgia's looking good, and hopefully we'll be able to get one or two more. Go Edwards!
Posted by: Ben at February 26, 2004 06:56 PM
The AJC has endorsed Kerry:
http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/opinion/0204a/27endorse.html
Posted by: Finrod Felagund at February 27, 2004 02:16 PM
Bleh.
Posted by: Ben at February 28, 2004 02:30 AM
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