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January 26, 2004
What They Want
It's the day before New Hampshire's vaunted first in the nation primary. Every poll shows Kerry in the lead -- some by seemingly unstoppable margins and some like Zogby within the margin of error. But what do the actual candidates want and need out of New Hampshire? This is my take.
John Kerry: He's the front-runner so he needs a convincing win. The fact that Dean led the state in pretty much every poll only a week ago has been forgotten and the new meme is that Kerry is unstoppable. No one outside the pundit class is paying attention to polls that show the race is tightening, so Kerry needs to win by at least 5 points. If he does that, he will clearly be the frontrunner.
Howard Dean: At this point, Dean needs one of two scenarios. He needs to win outright. Even if it is by less than 1%, a win will set Dean back on track. He was expected to win both Iowa and New Hampshire and I really don't see how he can find a route to the nomination if he doesn't win at least one. That said, if he comes in second as is expected, he needs for Edwards to have a weak third place showing or worse. A convincing Kerry win and a strong Edwards third place will create a media vacuum for Dean going into the Feb 3rd primaries.
John Edwards: If Edwards somehow ekes out second place, then it won't matter who comes in first -- Edwards will have won. This seems pretty unlikely, although with CNN predicting an unknown number of independents, possibly quite large, anything can and will happen in New Hampshire. Barring a second place finish, a convincing third place finish could really propel his campaign. Expectations for Edwards seem to be that 4th will be fine -- I'm not sure, but he does have the advantage of the lowest expectations in this race, as he did in Iowa.
Wesley Clark: Clark needs a third place finish, period. He skipped Iowa and has been in New Hampshire for over a month. If Edwards, who didn't roll in until a week ago beats him, the bubbling trend I'm noticing of Southern Democrats shifting support back to Edwards from Clark should only accelerate.
Joe Lieberman: If Lieberman comes in second, I suppose I could technically see how he could eke it out for the nomination. I just can't see this happening. Even if every Republican in the state voted in the Democratic primary, I think Dean would draw more crossover votes than Joe, because they'd be voting their heads, not their hearts. That said, if you have a gut feeling about Lieberman, head over to the Iowa Electronic Markets where you can turn $1 into $76 with a Lieberman nomination.
George Bush: I'm pretty sure he'll win. I suppose if he gets less than 90% of the Republican vote the media might pick up on the brewing "he's in trouble" meme. We'll see.
Posted by Chris at January 26, 2004 04:35 PM
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