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January 25, 2004
Tracking the Polls
Here's a rundown of some of the different pollsters.
| Chris is hardcore ARG estimate |
ARG 3 Day |
Zogby/ Reuters/ MSNBC |
Suffolk Univ/ WHDH-TV |
Boston Globe/ WBZ-TV |
Gallup/CNN/ USA Today |
Average | |
| Kerry | 42 | 38 | 30 | 36 | 38 | 38 | 37 |
| Dean | 20 | 16 | 23 | 20 | 15 | 25 | 20 |
| Clark | 14 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| Edwards | 17 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| Lieberman | 4 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| Other/ Undecided |
3 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 6 | 11 |
You make the call. One thing we do know is that there will be no undecideds on election day, unless they stay home. My gut reaction tells me that the undecideds will split between Kerry and Edwards. Dean's got solid support and that shows, Clark as the anti-Dean also has solid support.
At the Democratic Party Meetup in Atlanta this week, Dean had the most tables, Clark had the most vociferous supporters yet most of the curiosity was for Kerry and Edwards. Lieberman also has pretty solid core supporters, but I don't see him getting many of the late-breakers since even Joe's core supporters have to know that after Tuesday he's out of the running.
If you look at the average of all those polls up there, and you redistribute undecided by giving half of it to Kerry and half of it to Edwards, you get:
42 - Kerry
20 - Dean
17 - Edwards
13 - Clark
07 - Lieberman
Posted by Chris at January 25, 2004 05:54 PM
Comments
Poll dates (and links)?
Posted by: Michael at January 25, 2004 06:16 PM
Most recent numbers from me.
Most recent 3 day ARG average here.
Most recent Zogby average here.
Most recent Suffolk/Boston Globe here.
Most recent Gallup data here.
Posted by: Chris at January 25, 2004 06:27 PM
Chris,
You can't just average the percentages. They have different sample sizes, percentage of independents, etc. I would recommend looking a bit more into introductory statistics before making these claims.
Thanks.
Posted by: TS Quint at January 25, 2004 06:40 PM
Averaging them takes about 2 seconds. Anything else takes way longer, plus I'd have to crack out my old statistics books, plus it would still have a ridiculously high MOE.
The whole point of my little media sensation is that people spending thousands of dollars and hours and hours on this stuff are often wrong, people like myself and Wyeth spend a few minutes, could likely be equally wrong, but are at least producing some information that "the weak" want.
Posted by: Chris at January 25, 2004 07:06 PM
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