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January 11, 2004
State Senate Outlook, Part 1 of 4
One of the things I talk about quite a bit is the state legislature, particularly the state Senate. For one thing, it interests me quite a bit. Another reason might be that with only 56 districts, it's (relatively) easy to get a hold of. After talking to an out of state friend today, I thought I'd do a pre-session rundown of all 56 races, classifying each district as either (D) - Solid Democratic seat, (d) - Leans Democratic, (T) - Tossup, (r) or (R).
Let's begin.
District 1 - Pres. Pro Tem. Eric Johnson, Republican, Savannah. This district is solidly Republican whether Johnson, who had previously flirted with retirement runs or not. Democrats would like to see Jack Kingston go for higher or statewide office and Johnson move to Congress. He is perhaps the most skillful Republican in the legislature. (R)
District 2 - Sen. Regina Thomas, Democrat, Savannah. The colorful Thomas occupies a safe majority minority district centered in Savannah. Despite ideological differences, Republicans can count on Thomas's vote on a number of issues as long as her regional ally Johnson remains in a position of power. (D).
District 3 - Sen. Rene' Kemp, Democrat, Hinesville. In what I'll refer to as the Democratic doomsday scenario, Kemp and 4 or 5 other Democrats would lose and Republicans wouldn't lose any of the seats they are defending. Barring that, Kemp will probably have another close race, as he did last year. (d).
District 4 - Sen. Jack Hill, Republican, Reidsville. Party switcher Hill inhabits what should be a lean Democrat district. However, as long as Appropriations chairman Hill is running, the race probably leans toward his re-election. I don't believe the Democrats have recruited a challenger yet and don't expect to see one unless Hill draws a primary challenger. (r).
District 5 - Sen. Mary Squires, Democrat, Norcross. Squires may run for US Senate, and may end up running for her current seat. If she does vacate her Senate seat, state Rep. Curt Thompson is ready to step in. I don't see the Democrats losing this seat. (d).
District 6 - Sen. Ginger Collins, Republican, Smyrna. Collin's southwest Cobb district is among the top Democratic target. Barnes won this district in 2002 and Collins only won thanks to an inept challenger. There has already been strong fundraising on both sides in this district. District 6 is similar to multimember House district 34. The two districts share all but 5 precincts and the Democratic nominee in the Senate district will benefit from state Rep. Doug Stoner's help, who is determined to see his Senate district represented by a Democrat. (T).
District 7 - Sen. Peg Blitch, Democrat, Homerville. Blitch is another one of the doomsday senators. But I don't buy it. Blitch was supposed to have close races in both 2000 and 2002 but won by at least 15 points both times. I'm not sure her margin of victory will improve again in '04 but I don't see it deteriorating anytime soon. (D).
District 8 - Sen. Tim Golden, Democrat, Valdosta. Golden didn't draw opposition in 2002 and with news of his retirement I doubt his successor, whoever it will be (likely state Rep. Ron Borders) will either. Valdosta is still strong territory for Democrats. (D).
District 9 - Sen. Don Balfour, Republican, Snellville. Balfour won't see opposition in 2004 but if he did his chairmanship of the powerful Rules committee would be one of many reasons it would be tough to defeat him. (R).
District 10 - Sen. Nadine Thomas, Democrat, Decatur. Thomas is currently flirting with a primary challenge to Congresswoman Denise Majette, but it isn't likely. If Majette does the (seemingly) unlikely and enters the US Senate race, expect Thomas to run for Congress. Otherwise she'll probably continue to bide her time in this safe Senate seat. (D).
District 11 - Sen. John Bulloch, Republican, Ochlocknee. Bulloch's South Georgia district is the most competitive rural district for Democrats. Bulloch eeked out a victory in 2002 by .2% over a weak incumbent. 2002 Democratic primary loser Murray Campbell will be the challenger this year and the word is he's a much stronger general election candidate than Harold Ragan. Very competitive seat. (T).
District 12 - Sen. Michael Meyer von Bremen, Democrat, Albany. The only way minority leader MVB would lose would be in a Democratic primary to an African American challenger. Even that's unlikely. Expect this protege' of Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor to continue representing Taylor's old Senate seat. (D).
District 13 - Sen. Rooney Bowen, Republican, Cordele. Expect party switcher Bowen to face a Republican primary challenge and a strong general election race against a former Democratic legislator, although I'm not sure who it will be yet. (T).
This concludes part 1. Totals so far:
(D) - 5
(d) - 2
(T) - 3
(r) - 1
(R) - 2
Posted by Chris at January 11, 2004 12:41 PM
Comments
Ginger is going down. What I've seen of her opposition is young, male, and attractive, sure to peel off the bored housewife vote that shoehorned her into office in 2000. She's also in hot water with city of Smyrna bigwigs for a quasi-alliance with disgraced ex-city administrator (and also-ran council member) Howard Smith.
Especially if Mrs. Collins continues to publish campaign fliers that make her look like Don Rickles in kabuki drag.
Oh, by the way thanks for running through the list of Senators. You really missed seeing King Roy and the flaggers saturday.
Posted by: neil at January 11, 2004 08:05 PM
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