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January 25, 2004
1/25 ARG Daily
Here are the new numbers for 1/25. I have also updated my projection, based on these numbers, for the final numbers:
| Final Projection | ||||||||||||||
| on 1/25 | on 1/24 | on 1/23 | 1/25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | |
| 37 | 43 | 46 | Kerry | 34 | 42 | 39 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| 26 | 22 | 14 | Dean | 25 | 20 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 20 | 20 | 23 | Edwards | 16 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | 11 | Clark | 14 | 14 | 16 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 20 |
| 6 | 4 | 6 | Lieberman | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Other | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 20 | |||
Analysis: This is what ARG says on their webpage about today's numbers...
The daily trends show John Kerry holding, Howard Dean heading to the mid-20's, Wesley Clark and John Edwards trading places, and Joe Lieberman gaining slightly.
If I had to guess, I'd say they are talking about hard support numbers. Kerry's support dropped a little in my estimation, and Dean's gained. Today's undecided/other vote is only 4%. My guess is that Kerry's lead extends when ARG pushes the undecideds to pick a candidate. I still think these wafflers, should they decide to waffle, will go to Edwards.
I think someone on CNN's the Capitol Gang predicted that Lieberman might drop out of the race and endorse another candidate on Monday night. It seems more and more likely that it would be the smart thing to do - though I think it is likely that he could beat Clark. As always, I could be wrong about all of this.
Posted by Chris at January 25, 2004 10:58 PM
Comments
Sounds plausible to me.
If Lieberman drops out Monday as predicted, he ain't going to throw those votes to Dean. Remember the Gore endorsement. I would guess Joe would go with Kerry, since he'll want to get on the bandwagon, unless the Clintons have gotten him and Clark together.
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Click my page for a collection of quips about the candidates, from Ivins to Gore (Vidal).
Posted by: Hudson at January 26, 2004 02:41 AM
If Lieberman drops out, I'd guess he'll endorse Clark. No way he gives his votes to Kerry, since Lieberman would be looking for way to put his wieght behind a more middle of the road candidate like Clark - who can't even really decide which party he's in the in first place.
I suppose there's the off chance that Lieberman wants get on Kerry's ticket as VP. Fat chance that Kerry will want him instead of Edwards, seeing as the Southern strategy would be pretty much dead with a Jew from New England added to an already New England elist ticket. Very slim chance that Kerry would accept Lieberman's advances.
My prediction is that Lieberman drops out, throwing his weight behind the Clark campaign. Kerry, Dean and Clark finish 1,2,3 in NH. After Kerry ties up the nomination, Edwards and Kerry are the Democratic ticket.
Posted by: Isaac at January 26, 2004 03:50 PM
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