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December 29, 2003
White Men!!!
White Men overwhelmingly prefer Bush compared to a generically named Democrat. Still, if you say that White Men and White Women both make up 40% of the population and minorities make up 20%, even if Bush gets 70% of the white male vote (which would be a 40% margin of victory, something so awesome even this article dare not tread near), he'd have to get 20% of the minority vote and 45% of the white female vote just to hit 50%. I bet something like 3/4 of that minority bloc is black voters. Bush will be lucky to get 10% of that vote, which means he'd have to score 50% of the rest of the minority vote -- it's possible he'd get 50% of the Hispanic vote (but not likely outside of South Florida) but it's highly unlikely he'll get 50% of the Arab or Asian vote.
There is one thing that rings somewhat true about this article. Karl Rove has been telling pundits for years that if Bush gets the same percentage with each ethnic group in '04 as he got in 2000, he'll lose. The reason is simple, the only ethnic group he won was white people, and their share of the electorate has decreased percentage wise. So Bush must increase his margins with some or other ethnic group to win. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that try as he might, he probably won't pick up much support from blacks, arabs or hispanics (look how they've written off New Mexico). So the only group left in which you can increase your margins is whites. Democratic margins with minorities probably can't get much higher...so the question is will Bush increase his numbers with whites (specifically males) at a faster rate than the overall minority population is growing? I think he'll try his damndest.
Posted by Chris at December 29, 2003 12:14 AM
Comments
If Bush's efforts at increasing his numbers with the Caucasian male demographic fail, perhaps due to reasons of voters' inability to leap to answer his call, would you say that White Men Can't Jump?
Posted by: zachary d smith at December 29, 2003 02:47 PM
It would be proven beyond a doubt.
Posted by: Chris at December 29, 2003 04:24 PM
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