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November 18, 2003
Political Junkies Stock Exchange
A dream of mine for sometime has been to create a political stock exchange (most likely for fake money, but who knows) to track election related events. The Democratic primary is, to me, the perfect example of a huge situation where many interrelated outcomes will eventually align to pick one outcome...the nominee. Anyway, before I even begin to tackle this project, I would like to know 1) how many delegates each state will send to the Democratic national convention and 2) how they are awarded. Of course, 1 is more important than 2, for my purposes.
Regardless, looking at these numbers for 2000, it's pretty clear how and why South Carolina is an important state and maybe more important than New Hampshire. Additionally, I think the Iowa Markets, while historically pretty accurate, are prone to favoritism and swings. Do you really think Dean is 6 times as likely as Clark to be the nominee, 10 times more likely than Kerry, 40 times more likely than Lieberman and almost 2 times more likely than the rest of the field combined?
Posted by Chris at November 18, 2003 04:58 PM
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