Comments: Logical Flaw
How close was PA last time? Bush has a shot there, he tried to by it with that (flagrant violation of his supposed "principles") steel tarriffs stuff, and withoput studying it I think PA is close. They've got two GOP senators, one very conservative, the other liberal but HE is being challenged from the right next year (that's right the GOP is allowing a contest to a sitting Senator in a close Senate) I do agree though that the South, the states you mention anyway, are more in play than the DC and NY pundits believe.
How are you feeling about Dean these days? Reax to the confederate trux comment?
Posted by Wes at November 10, 2003 11:21 PM
Well, Gore won the state of Pennsylvania 50.6 - 46.4, so I don't think it's quite in play (or was that close -- the networks called it and Florida very early). Nader picked up an additional 2% or so, so Bush is facing a 6% uphill climb in '04, I'd say, at the very least.
How am I feeling about Dean? Pros and cons. I definitely think Dean will go down as a very important candidate, maybe less for all the revolutionary stuff (weblog, small donors, etc) than just for being the candidate who finally challenged the status quo, mostly on Iraq, which freed up the other candidates to take on Bush as well.
Right now I'm thinking Dean may be the Ross Perot to Clark's Clinton. There's a good theory that Perot may have cost Bush the election in '92. Not the way many Republicans think (on election day, Clinton would have won with or without Perot on the ballot). Perot's very visible entry into the race made many people who otherwise would have stuck with the incumbent take a look at another candidate. Of course, they didn't look at Perot for long, but once they were willing to consider another candidate, Clinton was a much more reasonable alternative, even if he wasn't initially the man voters cheated on Bush with.
I think Dean maybe doing something similar. For whatever reasons, he opposed Bush when few other Democrats were. Democrats, if not independants too, saw that there was an alternative to Bush. I'm not sure if Dean is the guy who can sew it up, so I'll vote for (who I think) is the strongest candidate in the primary. Could be Dean. Could be Clark. It will probably be one of those two, but if it were today I'd probably vote Clark. Not to say Dean hasn't done great things, and not to say he can't in the future. We'll see, I guess.
Posted by Chris at November 10, 2003 11:39 PM
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