Comments: 1/24 ARG Daily
What do you make of the fact that ARG said that Dean is "up 10 points from his low on the 22nd" in the daily numbers?
Posted by Hmmm at January 24, 2004 11:59 PM
They are either weighing their sample slightly different or they are talking about positive/negatives that don't show up in the actual ballot preference.
Of course it's always possible that my numbers could be off by 1 or 2 each day as long as it all evens up in the end.
They also said, the day after Iowa, that Kerry had opened up a "5 point lead" on Dean. But that's OBVIOUSLY not true. Those numbers moved way too fast for it to have only been 5 points at the time.
Posted by Chris at January 25, 2004 02:14 AM
Well, I'm a Dean supporter, and I think Howard is going to either beat John Kerry on Tuesday or come in second within 8 percentage points. Edwards will get 3rd, Clark 4th, and Lieberman 5th. Could you please explain the discrepancy between your day-to-day result estimates and momentum estimates and the MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby Poll results which are reporting official day-to-day results showing Dean with huge momentum from Friday and Saturday and closing in on Kerry while Clark bottoms out?
Posted by Mark Spreitzer at January 25, 2004 11:58 AM
If your projections hold, it would seem Dean is in big trouble, even if he noses out Edwards, with next stop being South Carolina. Great site, btw
Posted by Simon Says at January 25, 2004 01:42 PM
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